African mobile ARPU, subscriber and market size forecasts 2009-2013

Contents

Introduction

Forecasting Model and Methodology

Empirical Comparative Approach

Data Sources

Two Forecast Scenarios

Voice vs Data Revenue

Mobile Internet: the key to stemming ARPU decline

Key Findings

Country Forecasts

Algeria

Benin

Botswana

Burkina Faso

Cameroon

Chad

Congo-Brazzaville

Cote d’Ivoire

Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)

Egypt

Gabon

Ghana

Kenya

Madagascar

Morocco

Mozambique

Niger

Nigeria

South Africa

Sudan

Tanzania

Tunisia

Uganda

Zambia

Other publications

About the authors

Consultancy services

Appendix A: Mobile Internet – Summary of State-of-Play across Selected Countries

List of charts and tables

Charts

Charts 1A and 1B: Top 9 mobile browsers in Europe and Africa (2008/2009)

Chart 2: Algeria – Mobile subscriber growth and market penetration, 2003-2008

Chart 3: Mobile ARPU in Algeria, 2003-2008

Chart 4: Algeria mobile subscriber and penetration forecast, 2009-2013

Chart 5: Algeria mobile forecast, 2009-2013

Chart 6: Algeria mobile services market size forecast, 2009-2013

Chart 7: Mobile subscriber growth and market penetration in Benin, 2003-2008

Chart 8: MTN Benin Mobile ARPU, 2003-2008

Chart 9: Benin mobile subscriber and penetration forecast, 2009-2013

Chart 10: Benin mobile ARPU forecast, 2009-2013

Chart 11: Benin mobile services market size forecast, 2009-2013

Chart 12: Mobile subscriber growth and market penetration in Botswana, 2003-2008

Chart 13: Mascom Wireless (MTN Botswana) mobile ARPU (2005-2008)

Chart 14: Botswana mobile subscriber and penetration forecasts, 2009-2013

Chart 15: Botswana mobile ARPU forecast, 2009-2013

Chart 16: Botswana mobile services market size forecast, 2009-2013

Chart 17: Mobile subscriber growth and market penetration in Burkina Faso, 2003-2008

Chart 18: Mobile ARPU in Burkina Faso, 2003-2008

Chart 19: Burkina Faso mobile subscriber and penetration forecast, 2009-2013

Chart 20: Burkina Faso Mobile ARPU forecast, 2009-2013

Chart 21: Burkina Faso mobile services market size forecast, 2009-2013

Chart 22: Mobile subscriber growth and market penetration in Cameroon, 2003-2008

Chart 23: Mobile ARPU in Cameroon, 2003-2008

Chart 24: Cameroon mobile subscriber and penetration forecast, 2009-2013

Chart 25: Cameroon mobile ARPU forecast, 2009-2013

Chart 26: Cameroon mobile services market size forecast, 2009-2013

Chart 27: Mobile subscriber growth and market penetration in Chad, 2003-2008

Chart 28: Mobile ARPU in Chad, 2003-2008

Chart 29: Chad mobile subscriber and penetration forecast, 2009-2013

Chart 30: Chad mobile ARPU forecast, 2009-2013

Chart 31: Chad mobile services market size forecast, 2009-2013

Chart 32: Mobile subscriber growth and market penetration in Congo-Brazzaville, 2003-2008

Chart 33: Mobile ARPU in Congo-Brazzaville, 2003-2008

Chart 34: Congo-Brazzaville mobile subscriber and penetration forecast, 2009-2013

Chart 35: Congo-Brazzaville mobile ARPU forecast, 2009-2013

Chart 36: Congo-Brazzaville mobile services market size forecast, 2009-2013

Chart 37: Mobile subscriber growth and market penetration in Cote d’Ivoire

Chart 38: Mobile ARPU in Cote d’Ivoire, 2003-2008

Chart 39: Cote d’Ivoire mobile subscriber and penetration forecast, 2009-2013

Chart 40: Cote d’Ivoire mobile ARPU forecast, 2009-2013

Chart 41: Cote d’Ivoire mobile services market size forecast, 2009-2013

Chart 42: Mobile subscriber growth and market penetration in the DRC, 2003-2008

Chart 43: Mobile ARPU in the DRC, 2003-2008

Chart 44: DRC mobile subscriber and penetration forecast, 2009-2013

Chart 45: DRC mobile ARPU forecast, 2009-2013

Chart 46: DRC mobile services market size forecast, 2009-2013

Chart 47: Mobile subscriber growth and market penetration in Egypt, 2003-2008

Chart 48: Mobile ARPU in Egypt, 2003-2008

Chart 49: Egypt’s mobile subscriber and penetration forecast, 2009-2013

Chart 50: Egypt mobile ARPU forecast, 2009-2013

Chart 51: Egypt mobile services market size forecast, 2009-2013

Chart 52: Mobile subscriber growth and market penetration in Gabon, 2003-2008

Chart 53: Mobile ARPU in Gabon, 2003-2008

Chart 54: Gabon mobile subscriber and penetration forecast, 2009-2013

Chart 55: Gabon mobile ARPU forecast, 2009-2013

Chart 56: Gabon mobile services market size forecast, 2009-2013

Chart 57: Mobile subscriber growth and market penetration in Ghana, 2003-2008

Chart 58: Mobile ARPU in Ghana, 2003-2008

Chart 59: Ghana mobile subscriber and penetration forecast, 2009-2013

Chart 60: Ghana mobile ARPU forecast, 2009-2013

Chart 61: Ghana mobile services market size forecast, 2009-2013

Chart 62: Mobile subscriber growth and market penetration in Kenya, 2003-2008

Chart 63: Mobile ARPU in Kenya, 2006-2008

Chart 64: Kenya mobile subscriber and penetration forecast, 2009-2013

Chart 65: Kenya mobile ARPU forecast, 2009-2013

Chart 66: Kenya mobile services market size forecast, 2009-2013

Chart 67: Mobile subscriber growth and market penetration in Madagascar, 2008-2013

Chart 68: Mobile ARPU in Madagascar, 2004-2008

Chart 69: Madagascar mobile subscriber penetration forecast 2009-2013

Chart 70: Madagascar mobile ARPU forecast 2009-2013

Chart 71: Madagascar mobile services market size forecast, 2009-2013

Chart 72: Mobile subscriber growth and market penetration in Morocco, 2003-2008

Chart 73: Mobile ARPU in Morocco, 2003-2008

Chart 74: Morocco mobile subscriber and penetration forecast, 2009-2013

Chart 75: Morocco mobile ARPU forecast, 2009-2013

Chart 76: Morocco mobile services market size forecast, 2009-2013

Chart 77: Mobile subscriber growth and market penetration in Mozambique, 2003-2008

Chart 78: Mobile ARPU in Mozambique, 2003-2008

Chart 79: Mozambique mobile subscriber and penetration forecast, 2009-2013

Chart 80: Mozambique ARPU forecast, 2009-2013

Chart 81: Mozambique mobile services market size forecast, 2009-2013

Chart 82: Mobile subscriber growth and market penetration in Niger, 2003-2008

Chart 83: Mobile ARPU in Niger, 2003-2008

Chart 84: Niger mobile subscriber and penetration forecast, 2009-2013

Chart 85: Niger mobile ARPU forecast, 2009-2013

Chart 86: Niger mobile services market forecast, 2009-2013

Chart 87: Mobile subscriber growth and market penetration in Nigeria, 2003-2008

Chart 88: Mobile ARPU in Nigeria, 2003-2008

Chart 89: Nigeria mobile subscriber and penetration forecast, 2009-2013

Chart 90: Nigeria mobile ARPU forecast, 2009-2013

Chart 91: Nigeria mobile services market size forecast, 2009-2013

Chart 92: Mobile subscriber growth and market penetration in South Africa, 2003-2008

Chart 93: Mobile ARPU in South Africa, 2003-2008

Chart 94: South Africa mobile subscriber and penetration forecast, 2009-2013

Chart 95: South Africa mobile ARPU, 2009-2013

Chart 96: South Africa mobile services market size forecast, 2009-2013

Chart 97: Mobile subscriber growth and market penetration in Sudan, 2003-2008

Chart 98: Mobile ARPU in Sudan, 2003-2008

Chart 99: Sudan mobile subscriber and penetration forecast, 2009-2013

Chart 100: Sudan mobile ARPU forecast, 2009-2013

Chart 101: Sudan mobile services market size forecast, 2009-2013

Chart 102: Mobile subscriber growth and market penetration, 2003-2013

Chart 103: Mobile ARPU in Tanzania, 2003-2008

Chart 104: Tanzania mobile subscriber and penetration forecast, 2009-2013

Chart 105: Tanzania mobile ARPU forecast, 2009-2013

Chart 106: Tanzania mobile services market size forecast, 2009-2013

Chart 107: Mobile subscriber growth and market penetration in Tunisia, 2003-2008

Chart 108: Mobile ARPU in Tunisia, 2003-2008

Chart 109: Tunisia mobile ARPU forecast, 2009-2013

Chart 110: Tunisia mobile ARPU forecast, 2009-2013

Chart 111: Tunisia mobile services market size forecast, 2009-2013

Chart 112: Mobile subscriber growth and penetration forecast in Uganda, 2003-2008

Chart 113: Mobile ARPU in Uganda, 2003-2008

Chart 114: Uganda mobile subscriber and penetration forecast, 2009-2013

Chart 115: Uganda mobile ARPU forecast, 2009-20134

Chart 116: Uganda mobile services market size forecast, 2009-2013

Chart 117: Mobile subscriber growth and market penetration in Zambia, 2003-2008

Chart 118: Mobile ARPU in Zambia, 2003-2008

Chart 119: Zambia mobile subscriber and market penetration forecast, 2009-2013

Chart 120: Zambia mobile ARPU forecast, 2009-2013

Chart 121: Zambia mobile services market size forecast, 2009-2013

Tables

Table 1: Mobile Internet Subscribers in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda (2008/2009)

Table 2: Most used information sources in North Africa (daily)

Table 3: Algeria market statistics, 2008

Table 4: Algeria population and GDP forecast, 2009-2013 (IMF)

Table 5: Benin market statistics, 2008

Table 6: Benin population and GDP forecast, 2009-2013 (IMF)

Table 7: Botswana market statistics, 2008

Table 8: Botswana population and GDP forecast, 2009-2013 (IMF)

Table 9: Burkina Faso market statistics, 2008

Table 10: Burkina Faso population and GDP forecast, 2009-2013 (IMF)

Table 11: Cameroon market statistics, 2008

Table 12: Cameroon population and GDP forecast, 2009-2013 (IMF)

Table 13: Chad key statistics, 2008

Table 14: Chad population and GDP forecast, 2009-2013 (IMF)

Table 15: Congo-Brazzaville key statistics, 2008

Table 16: Congo-Brazzaville population and GDP forecast, 2009-2013 (IMF)

Table 17: Cote d’Ivoire market statistics, 2008

Table 18: Cote d’Ivoire population and GDP forecast, 2009-2013 (IMF)

Table 19 DRC market statistics, 2008

Table 20: DRC population and GDP forecasts, 2009-2013 (IMF)

Table 21: Egypt market statistics, 2008

Table 22: Egypt population and GDP forecast, 2009-2013 (IMF)

Table 23: Gabon market statistics, 2008

Table 24: Gabon population and GDP growth forecast, 2009-2013 (IMF)

Table 25: Ghana market statistics, 2008

Table 26: Ghana population and GDP forecast, 2009-2013

Table 27: Kenya market statistics, 2008

Table 28: Kenya population and GDP forecasts, 2009-2013 (IMF)

Table 29: Madagascar market statistics, 2008

Table 30: Madagascar population and GDP forecast, 2009-2013 (IMF)

Table 31: Morocco market statistics, 2008

Table 32: Morocco population growth and GDP forecast, 2009-2013 (IMF)

Table 33: Mozambique market statistics, 2008

Table 34: Mozambique population and GDP forecast, 2009-2013 (IMF)

Table 35: Niger market statistics, 2008

Table 36: Niger population and GDP forecast, 2009-2013 (IMF)

Table 37: Nigeria market statistics, 2008

Table 38: Nigeria population and GDP forecast, 2009-2013 (IMF)

Table 39: South Africa market statistics 2008

Table 40: South Africa population and GDP forecast, 2009-2013 (IMF)

Table 41: Sudan market statistics, 2008

Table 42: Sudan population and GDP forecast, 2009-2013 (IMF)

Table 43: Tanzania market statistics, 2008

Table 44: Tanzania population and GDP forecast, 2009-2013 (IMF)

Table 45: Tunisia market statistics, 2008

Table 46: Tunisia population and GDP forecast, 2009-2013 (IMF)

Table 47: Uganda market statistics, 2008

Table 48: Uganda population and GDP forecast, 2009-2013 (IMF)

Table 49: Zambia market statistics, 2008

Table 50: Zambia population and GDP forecast, 2009-2013 (IMF)

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